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Implications of the New Taliban Government for the Biden Administration

The August 2021Taliban takeover of Kabul, and the prospect of Jihadi influxes from Afghanistan subject to Taliban government manipulation, elicit several international security challenges to the United States, and several international and domestic security challenges to several nation-states in close proximity to Afghanistan. Those countries include, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Russia, Pakistan, India, China, and Iran. The threat from potential Jihadi influxes is examined, along with new opportunities for the Biden administration to improve relations with Iran’s Ayatollah Khamene’i and President Raisi by means of what political scientists call “assurance games.” It follows the use of an “ assurance games” framework to help protect Iranian interests in Afghanistan such as the Hazaras for example, has the potential to influence the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) talks because issue areas in international politics are related. To further this goal, public U.S. administration support for the efforts by the Taliban government to protect Hazara communities in Afghanistan against ISIS-K terrorism is critical for a substantive reengagement of American influence in Afghanistan. At the domestic politics level, this is also a prudent position for President Biden to take after his ill-conceived and costly withdrawal from Afghanistan KEYWORDS: AfghanistanTalibanIndiaterrorismBiden Previous article View issue table of contents Next article Introduction In public discourse about the fall of Afghanistan, it is commonplace to note articles about the egregious human rights violations the Taliban commit, the plight of women and girls under the Taliban, and what the true face of the contemporary Taliban is all about. While all of those topics are critically important, there is precious little in the public domain devoted to even a broader analysis of some strategic threats for regional and international security elicited by the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan. This brief essay on Afghanistan after the fall of the Taliban seeks to fill that gap. The framework for discussion involves: potential Taliban manipulation of opium supplies to international markets; threat potential associated Jihadi extremist influxes to Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan; the potential security threat of such influxes to Russian republics in the Caucuses; security implications for India, Pakistan, and China; ties between internal security conditions in Afghanistan and Iran; implications for American security policy. Overall, the danger the Taliban pose in Afghanistan has grown because the new

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