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Recidivism Among People Convicted of Terrorism: A Survival Analysis Based on the Belgian Central Criminal Record

The recidivism of people convicted of terrorism remains a major concern. Paradoxically, few studies have been carried out on this subject yet. What do we know about it? This paper presents the results of a study on recidivism among people convicted of terrorism in Belgium (n = 463), based on data from the Belgian Central Criminal Record. Based on a literature review, the study aims to: 1) Describe the characteristics of this population; 2) Quantify f igures related to recidivism; 3) Investigate the time to recidivism and factors influencing it through a survival analysis including Cox proportional hazard models. Our findings show that the majority of the offenders are male and affiliated with a terrorist group. Half of them had prior convictions. The prevalence of reconviction for any new offence (general recidivism) is low (10 percent), and reconviction for terrorism is extremely rare (1 percent; n = 5). Survival analysis on general recidivism has shown that the criminal history, in particular the number of prior convictions, influences the time to recidivism, and that the nature of the prior offences influences the time to recidivism as well. The impacts of the methodological choices, limitations of the study and research perspectives are also presented

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